My interview on CGTN on December 10, 2025. Trump’s proposals for a $12b bailout of U.S. farmers is a purely domestic policy play — after disastrous election losses (especially in Virginia) and low ratings in various polls. However, his recent reduction of tariffs on beef coning into the U.S. is inconsistent with his going after the farm vote (especially cattle ranchers). His essential concern now is to reposition himself for the critical midterm elections, so as not to lose the Congress. The farmer’s support is very tenuous.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IKXqoSxGy-I&pp=0gcJCR4Bo7VqN5tD
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“Red-state farmers continue to struggle under damaging inflation and the fallout of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, especially with China …. Trump announced this month that he will use $11 billion to bail out farmers from “trade market disruptions and increased production costs that are still impacting farmers.” For farmers, trade groups and industry advocates, however, the bailout marked a tacit admission that a year’s worth of Trump policies have upended their industry and threatened their livelihoods. Still unclear is whether policies that have hurt farmers will also sour the relationship between the president and one of his most loyal and politically symbolic constituencies …. But Trump’s far-reaching tariffs on foreign imports — and reciprocal levies against some U.S. products — have blunted those hopes. Tariffs on countries including Canada and China, and on specific goods such as steel and aluminum, translated into rising costs for tractors, combines and fertilizer. Even more damaging was the escalating trade war with China, a country American soybean producers have relied on to import the bulk of their crops. Reciprocal tariffs swelled well into the triple digits …. For soybean farmers, market losses due to the ongoing trade conflict with China are only exacerbating financial problems …. Trump did not appear to be concerned about his standing with U.S. farmers.” “Trump and Farmers.” Wall Street Journal (12.26.25).
“One of the least surprising news events of the year happened last week when the White House announced a $12bn bailout for the American farmers who have been clobbered by Trump’s tariff war. This is, of course, exactly what happened in his first administration, taking from the agricultural sector one minute and giving it a handout the next. Essentially the president took away farmers’ work and put them on welfare. The most salient example is US soyabean exporters, whom China has boycotted in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods. Foreign Policy magazine has a very good piece summing up the current situation. It quotes Chris Barrett, agricultural economist at Cornell University, who says the $12bn is nowhere near enough to compensate for total farm losses, which he estimates exceed $40bn.” Trump’s Farm Bailout.” Trade Secrets (Financial Times) (12.15.25).
“The Trump administration asked a federal court to reject a request from dozens of companies seeking to suspend the final processing, or “liquidation,” of tariff payments, as importers race against deadlines that could affect their ability to secure refunds. In a filing last week, the DOJ opposed a Thursday request from dozens of companies for an injunction to halt tariff processing ahead of a Supreme Court ruling on duties Trump imposed under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. “Court of International Trade, DOJ and Companies ‘s Tariff Liquidations.” Trade Secrets (Politico) (12.15.25).
“I don’t really understand it politically, he has just alienated a bunch of ranchers,” said Bolton, who warned that allowing more foreign farm goods into the US would put Trump on a collision course with some of his most ardent backers. “He would turn us against him,” Bolton said. “And we are his biggest supporters.” Ranchers — most of whom live in states that voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2024 — have in recent weeks found themselves at odds with their president as he has railed against the high price of beef on social media.” “Trump’s Beef Tariff Reduction Alienates Ranchers.” Financial Times (December 20, 2025).
Stuart Malawer
U.S. LAW & GLOBAL TRADE RELATIONS. 
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