New Article — Malawer, “Trump’s Tariffs — Chaos Continues.” Journal of East Asia and International Law (2026).
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The tariff refund process has started with the new website portal by CBP. Still, Trump now threatens those firms filing for refunds. Most refunds will be going to large importers of record — not the consumer who paid the higher prices. Just how low can the president go in his policy of threatening any and everyone. By the way, many have never viewed tariffs as the main trade problem — even those who support Trump. Trump has now imposed newer tariffs (Section 122), considering national security tariffs (Section 232) and has also requested various investigations (Section 301) that can lead to even newer tariffs. Trump’s tariffs in 2025 have already exceeded the tax cuts in Trump’s “One Big Beautifull Bill” for that year.…………………………………………………………………“This tariff-refund portal is about to be America’s hottest website — On Monday, U.S. Customs and Border Protection will launch the first phase of its tariff refund process, a process that became necessary when the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s signature tariffs. “U.S. Customs has estimated that it owes a total of $166 billion in tariff refunds, and the agency’s legal filings suggest that the initial phase would tackle the majority of affected imports. On Tuesday, a Customs official told a judge that the vast majority of eligible importers signed up for electronic payments, as the agency is requiring, and that group is owed about $127 billion.” Tariff Refund Portal. Scotus Blog (April 20, 2026).“Trump on Tuesday said he will “remember” U.S. companies that do not seek refunds for the tariffs he unilaterally imposed. Those so-called IEEPA tariffs were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court in a 6-3 decision. Trump’s comment that companies would be “brilliant” for not seeking refunds came a day after U.S. Customs and Border Protection opened a portal for importers to seek more than $160 billion in potential refunds for tariffs. A number of big companies, including Apple and Amazon, have not yet sought refunds for the tariffs.” “Trump – I’ll Remember Companies Not Seeking Refunds.” CNBC (April 21, 2026).“Trump administration on Monday took its first steps toward returning more than $166 billion collected from tariffs that were struck down in February. Just over a year after imposing many of the duties, the government began accepting requests for refunds, surrendering its prized source of revenue — plus interest …. But only the entities that officially paid the tariffs are eligible to recover that money. That means that the fuller universe of people affected by Trump’s policies — including millions of Americans who paid higher prices for the products they bought — are not able to apply for direct relief. The extent to which consumers realize any gain hinges on whether businesses share the proceeds, something that few have publicly committed to do. Some have started to band together in class-action lawsuits in the hopes of receiving a payout …. While the government has lost trade cases in the past — and has been forced to refund money as a result — the repayment process now awaiting Trump is unlike any in recent history. By the administration’s own count, there were more than 330,000 importers by March that had paid IEEPA duties on more than 53 million entries …. The government estimates that it amassed more than $166 billion in revenue from those taxes on imports. That outstanding balance is expected to accrue roughly an additional $650 million in interest each month, or about $22 million per day.” “Tariff Refund $166 Billion Begin.” New York Times (April 21, 2026).“The trouble was not only that, in practice, free trade involved inconsistency regarding tariffs. It was also that tariffs themselves were misunderstood as posing the largest obstacle to trade, well past the point at which that was the case. By the 1970s, average tariffs were quite low in most developed countries and had been substantially reduced in many developing ones. Far more detrimental to the cross-border movement of goods were the nontariff barriers that countries imposed, including distortionary tax systems, such as value-added taxes that raised import prices and subsidized exports, state-influenced banking systems that provided low-interest loans for export industries, environmental and health and safety regulations that were based not on science but on the need to protect domestic industries, weak labor laws designed to help manufacturing bosses at the expense of workers, policies that devalued currencies to boost exports and impede imports, and extensive direct and indirect subsidies that gave an unfair advantage to domestic production.” “New Trade Order.” Foreign Affairs (May/June 2026).“The largest businesses stand to reap the biggest bucks as the Trump administration begins to return more than $166 billion in duties deemed illegal by the Supreme Court. Even though President Trump’s trade policies have led to higher prices for companies and consumers, many families aren’t in line to benefit directly from the coming refund checks. The discrepancy is a reflection of the nation’s complicated import laws — and the ever-fluid nature of Mr. Trump’s trade war …. That could turn the tariff refunds into a divisive political issue, at a moment when a majority of voters have already expressed dissatisfaction with the president’s handling of the economy. Democrats have demanded that the administration return the money to families, but Mr. Trump has opposed returning the money at all — and he suggested this week that it would be “brilliant” if companies chose to forgo repayment …. At least three, FedEx, UPS and DHL, have said they intend to share tariff refunds directly with customers. Frequently, the shipping giants pay tariffs as the official importers for shipped goods, but pass along the charges to the consumers, who placed the orders. Each said it would help customers recover money.” “Refunds Go Only to Business.” New York Times (April 24, 2026).“After the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s signature tariffs in February, the Trump administration invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which “allows the president to impose global tariffs as high as 15% for up to 150 days.” “But those stopgap levies expire in less than three months,” and the administration is now “scrambling to put more durable tariffs in place” …. Starting this week, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative will begin hearings in two investigations that are expected to lead to a new round of U.S. tariffs. The hearings are required under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which authorizes tariffs and other sanctions against countries found to engage in ‘unjustifiable,’ ‘unreasonable’ or ‘discriminatory’ trade practices.’ Section 301 tariffs “expire after four years but can be extended.” “More Tariffs.” Scotus Blog (April 29, 2026).“Republicans are counting on voters being pleasantly surprised by larger-than-expected tax refunds this spring thanks to new tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Republican lawmakers hope this will ameliorate what Democrats call the “affordability crisis” and make it possible for the GOP to maintain control of Congress. The problem is that although the government is putting money back into taxpayers’ pockets on the one hand via tax refunds, it is taking more money out via tariff-driven price increases, leaving Americans worse off financially …. Things will get worse in 2026. The Congressional Budget Office projects that Mr. Trump’s tariffs will generate $331 billion this year, while the CBO estimates the new tax cuts will save taxpayers $230 billion. Families and businesses will be worse off on net …. If the president successfully restores his tariffs to the levels where they were before the Supreme Court’s decision in February, the tariff tax in 2026 will be 44% larger than the new tax cuts contained in the Big Beautiful Bill …. The Trump administration’s economic policies feel like a bad deal to the average American because consumers bear most of the direct costs of the tariff bill while most of the tax refunds go through businesses …. Voters don’t reward politicians for enacting tariffs. In the election that followed the 1890 McKinley tariffs—tariffs that Mr. Trump has cited as a prototype for his own—Republicans lost 93 representatives (including Rep. William McKinley, the tariff’s namesake) and four senators. So bitter was the subsequent Republican experience with tariffs that a Republican President, William Howard Taft, pushed for the 16th Amendment, giving Congress the power to impose income taxes as an alternative funding source to tariffs. A Republican Congress overwhelmingly proposed it, and state legislatures ratified it with bipartisan support. Republicans feared the income tax, but they had grown to hate tariffs.” Trump Tax Increase (Tariffs) of 2026. Wall Street Journal (April 29, 2026).
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