The global trading system is waiting for the Supreme Court’s decision in the tariff case. This has been more than one year since Trump started his tariff campaign which has become central to his foreign policy and geopolitics. Amazingly, the tariffs actually haven’t impacted prices all that much and to only some extent trade flows.
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“But more than 12 weeks have already passed since the Nov. 5, 2025 arguments in the tariffs case. Now the court is on break, meaning a decision is unlikely for at least a few more weeks. Judging by the oral argument, Trump is the underdog in Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump. But the longer the case drags on without resolution, the less likely it is that the president got licked …. The lengthy deliberations are a puzzle because the case is not particularly complex. The 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act allows the president to “regulate” imports in an emergency. Trump says this IEEPA language means he can impose unlimited tariffs on any country at will, even though the Constitution gives the tariff power to Congress …. Then there’s Trump’s tariff-centered diplomacy. The president’s tariff threats against European countries over Greenland last month might have hurt his cause at the Supreme Court if they made him appear to be abusing power. On the other hand, they emphasized that Trump views tariffs as his primary foreign-policy tool — and the Supreme Court has historically been reluctant to intervene in a president’s foreign policy …. It’s always perilous to make predictions about a case based on the deciders’ timeline, but some are possible. Criminal defense lawyers tend to be happy when the jury is out for a long time without convicting their client. And the longer a status quo stays in place, all else being equal, the less likely the Supreme Court is to disturb it. …. It’s still hard to see how Trump wins this case, given the three liberal justices inclined against him, Justice Neil M. Gorsuch’s strict view of the separation of powers and the chief justice’s concern with the court’s nonpartisan reputation. But the odds of a clean and decisive defeat for the president are going down, and the odds of some sort of negotiated settlement are going up. Perhaps the justices are trying to engineer a way to block the tariffs only prospectively, without inviting an avalanche of lawsuits over refunds. That could be a worthy goal, but the damage from judicial delay is growing.” “Delay in Tariff Case.” Washington Post (Feb. 2, 2026).
“Americans pay one way or the other—via higher prices or less choice. Trump admitted as much when he said last year that tariffs mean Americans might have to buy fewer dolls for their children at Christmas. Mr. Trump also ignores that the tariffs he’s imposing are a far cry from what he proposed. The rates he declared on “Liberation Day” created a market swoon that quickly caused him to back down and promise to negotiate 90 trade deals in 90 days. Some of those have been announced, and most of those are far below his “liberation” rates …. All of this for what benefit? Trump points to the rising stock market, which is true—but it tends to rise when Mr. Trump dials back a tariff threat and fall when he issues a new one. The S&P 500 index nearly tumbled into a bear market in the days after Trump’s April “Liberation Day” announcement of across-the-board tariffs. Stocks saw some of their biggest gains of the year on the days when he announced a pause on the China tariffs, and then a “deal” with Beijing. Tariffs are a market loser.” “Trump’s Tariffs.” Wall Street Journal (Feb. 5, 2026)..
“Over the past year, Trump raised average U.S. tariffs to about 17 percent, the highest level since 1932, in the wake of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Trump’s stated aim was to reinvigorate American industry and bring jobs back to the United States …. One of the most tangible effects of Trump’s trade policy has been a drastic increase in the revenue the government takes in from tariffs. The United States collected an estimated $287 billion in customs duties, taxes and fees last year, nearly triple the amount in 2024 …. And while spending on the construction of new factories is much higher than before the pandemic, it’s down from the end of the Biden administration, when grants to semiconductor and battery factories were encouraging construction.” “Trump’s Tariffs – One Year Assessment.” New York Times (Feb. 7, 2026).


























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