Farmers are rebelling against the Trump tariffs and the Republicans throughout the farm belt. This is bad for Republicans in the run up to the midterms. This is alongside the general populist hostility toward globalization that has emerged over the last decade or so. New litigation has been filed contesting, once again, Trump’s tariffs. (This time contesting the newer Canadian tariffs under Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act.) Historically, farmers have always been against tariffs, because besides everything else, they have often resulted in counter-trade measures –blocking agricultural exports. But this time it’s a bit different. The Trump tariffs (and foreign military operations — Iran) have caused a great increase inflation — in the cost of agricultural production — from diesel fuel to cost of fertilizer and machinery. Trump’s promise of yet another farm bailout ($8 billion) is merely another crass maneuver. Yet the farm belt is probably the heaviest subsidized sector in the U.S. economy — ever since the New Deal. It needs international markets and global trade — not taxpayer money, barely hiding presidential bribes. It’s tariffs, more than Iran, that is being blamed for the politically toxic issue of consumer affordability.
“Economic anxieties are testing the loyalty of rural voters to the Republican Party, expanding the electoral battlefield into some of the most traditionally conservative districts across the nation and raising Democratic hopes. For a decade, farmers and ranchers have been a core part of Trump’s coalition, voting for him by double-digit margins in all three of his presidential races. But as the impact of his tariffs and the war in Iran fuel discontent in agricultural communities across the country, the bond between the president and rural voters is beginning to fray. The anger is palpable from the soybean farms in Mississippi to the cattle spreads in Kansas. Ranchers are seething over the administration’s decision to drop import tariffs on foreign beef. Farmers are fuming about the higher costs of tractors, fertilizer and fuel …. Farmers across the United States have been struggling for years with high costs for land, machinery, fertilizer and seeds, while most crop prices are down significantly from their 2022 highs. While financial shifts are expected in farming, the challenging conditions have been exacerbated by federal government policies …. Farmers across the United States have been struggling for years with high costs for land, machinery, fertilizer and seeds, while most crop prices are down significantly from their 2022 highs. While financial shifts are expected in farming, the challenging conditions have been exacerbated by federal government policies. Tariffs have driven up the cost of steel used to make tractors and weakened some export markets, hurting soybean farmers and ranchers. The war in Iran sent fertilizer and diesel prices skyrocketing .…. The financial challenges facing rural communities have shifted the electoral map, transforming Senate races in Kansas, Iowa and Texas.” “Farm Country and Strained Republicans.” New York Times (10.16.26).
“Hostility towards global trade has been a seemingly unstoppable trend of the past decade, and a central campaigning message for both left and the right. The trend kicked off when Hillary Clinton chose to repudiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership as a sop to key portions of the Democratic electorate …. The White House’s problem is that tariffs and the war have become signature elements of the administration’s foreign policy, and are now seen by a majority of the American public as having increased the threat of shortages and inflation …. There’s little doubt that the globalisation of trade had concentrated effects in certain regions of the US, particularly in the Midwest and Southeast. And the Midwest has functioned as the fulcrum of American national politics for more than a decade. This may have amplified political incentives to focus on trade, particularly because solutions to problems in healthcare, housing, and higher education — the non-tradeable sectors— appear beyond the realm of cross-party, or even intraparty, political agreement. However, this strategy might have reached its limits.” “Has Populism’s Anti-Globalization Peaked in the U.S.?” Financial Times (Oct. 20, 2026).
“The Trump administration plans to hand out another $8 billion in direct payments to U.S. farmers who face losses from market disruptions and high fuel costs …. The planned payments under a U.S. Agriculture Department program come as America’s farmers are struggling with higher fuel prices from Trump’s war in Iran. Higher fertilizer costs and a recent drop in selling prices for corn are expected to drag on farmers’ profits. Diesel prices have surged to more than $6 a gallon on average, hurting farmers running equipment such as combines and tractors. The creation of the Harvest Fuel Relief program comes two weeks before the midterm elections …. Government funding has played a bigger role in boosting farmer incomes over the past decade, running from trade war-related payouts during Trump’s first and second terms and rescue funding through the Covid-19 pandemic. More recently, checks are being sent to help farmers deal with low crop prices. Before the creation of the new program, the Agriculture Department estimated that direct payments to farmers would hit $44 billion this year. “Trump Plans $8 billion for Farmers.” Wall Street Journal (Oct. 20, 2026).
“A new lawsuit challenges President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods. The suit by the Gellert Global Group, a New Jersey food importer, asks the U.S. Court of International Trade to declare Trump’s “Section 338” tariffs unlawful and order refunds for duties already paid. Gellert Global is represented by the Liberty Justice Center, the same legal group that dealt a major blow to Trump’s trade agenda by successfully contesting his “reciprocal” tariffs at the Supreme Court …. Trump in July used Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 to slap those steep tariffs on Canadian hockey sticks, wine, honey, wigs, and other products in response to alleged trade discrimination by Ottawa. It was the first time the 96-year-old law had ever been used to impose a tariff …. The Liberty Justice Center is currently engaged in two other lawsuits against what it says is Trump’s misuse of laws to impose sweeping tariffs …. The law (Section 338) permits tariff action “only upon finding ‘as a fact’” that a foreign country is unequally imposing unreasonable charges or trade limitations on U.S. products, or that its customs rules otherwise unfairly disadvantage the U.S.” “Trump Sued Over Canadian Tariffs.” CNBC (Oct. 29, 2026).
“Trump is trying to rescue vulnerable Republicans in the Midwest by promising an $8 billion bailout for farmers two weeks before the midterms. That would bring direct federal payments to farmers this fiscal year to about $55 billion. The amount is about a quarter of what farms add annually to U.S. gross domestic product and nearly five times the level of direct payments in 2017…. The special status for farmers is largely enabled by an old New Deal invention called the Commodity Credit Corporation, which gives the Agriculture Department broad discretion to distribute federal funds. Last December, the president used the fund to pay 12 billion for “one time bridge payments” to farmers facing “temporary trade market disruptions and increased production costs.” The fund has continued to serve as a backstop for farmers despite the rise of heavily subsidized federal crop insurance.” “Farmers, Bailout and Free Markets.” Washington Post (Oct. 21, 2026).
“Trump once called “tariff” the most beautiful word in the dictionary. He has somehow made it one of the most hated words in politics. In their midterm ads, Democrats repeatedly bash tariffs. Republicans, by contrast, are largely silent …. The uglification of tariffs threatens not just Republicans’ midterm chances, but Trump’s own legacy. In his first term, he succeeded in shifting the political consensus away from free trade. Upon his return, he could have gone even further by entrenching tariffs in American tax and trade policy. That now looks less likely, especially if Democrats win one or both chambers of Congress …. What happened? Trump’s trade agenda collided with the public’s cost of living agenda, and trade lost. The public blames tariffs even more than the war with Iran for worsening inflation …. So tariffs became politically toxic less because of their actual effect than how, and when, they were imposed.” “Tariffs – Most Hated Word in Politics.” New York Times (Oct. 23, 2026).
“As the midterms approach, how is the Trump administration’s foreign policy performing? The answer will influence decision making in the second half of his term and the policies of his successor in 2029. A revealing exercise is to attempt to evaluate success on the White House’s own terms. Rather than isolationism, the administration exhibits a desire to ensure America “gets paid” for its superpower status by maximising its cash flow and assets; a belief it can cut defence obligations without triggering a world war; and an assumption that other countries will suck it up. Values such as human rights and loyalty are peripheral. The goal of monetizing superpower status offends liberal values and orthodox economics but is not new …. The final conclusion is that the administration will not reverse course, but double down ….It could mean more concessions to placate China and Russia in the name of stability. And it means confrontations with allies over their attempts to build a plan B. Scored according to its own rationale, the first half has not been a failure, which almost guarantees the second will be no less dangerous. “Half-Time Report on Trump – Foreign Policy.” Financial Times (Oct. 23, 2026).
“Foreign policy seldom has much impact on domestic politics …. But this midterm election promises to be different. If, as now appears likely, this turns into a “blue wave” election, Republicans can pin a great deal of the blame on Trump’s foreign policy and trade agenda — and in particular on his foolhardy decisions to launch trade wars with many countries followed by a “forever war” with Iran …. Trump’s illogical and emotional devotion to tariffs led him to raise the effective tariff rate …. Trump is right that the war with Iran hasn’t lasted as long, or caused as many U.S. casualties, as previous wars such as Vietnam. But, by shaking world energy markets, his Iran conflict has already caused more economic pain than previous conflicts such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan. “Trump’s Iran War and Tariffs,” Washington Post (Oct. 28, 2026).
















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