Once again, Trump is trying to steal the show — claiming he has the right to violate the law, make himself the center of attention, and to further cause chaos in a number of domestic and international fields.

     His recent threats of higher tariffs on our closest allies Japan, Korea, Canada (again), copper tariffs, EU and Brazil are the latest example of use of tariffs as his favored economic policy and tool for changing international politics — according to his daily whims. (For example, aiming to change Brazilian elections and Brazilian litigation because he favors the former Brazilian president).

     U.S. courts and Congress have so far failed to stop his illegal threats and coercion violating both U.S. domestic and international trade law.  I fact, it’s getting worse. There seems to be a total collapse of law concerning trade — both on the domestic level in the U.S. and on the international playing fields.

     However, I believe the federal courts and our trading partners (by forming newer alliances and trade patterns) are going to become more proactive and effective in stopping this unbridled extension of executive power. They will help to reorient the trading system and geopolitics to a more predictable and law-based system. Chaos and uncertainty cannot continue.

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“Whatever comes out of Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” idea, or indeed his sectoral tariffs on cars and so on, isn’t actually going to work. They won’t close the US current account deficit, they won’t lead to a manufacturing revival, and they won’t replace revenue from federal income tax …. Let’s also recall: Trump’s tactics are extremely random …. And finally, let’s remember he has at least seven targets: reciprocity, revenue, restriction (that is, protectionism), the current account, clientelism, coercion and confusion. At the moment, he’s actually enjoying creating uncertainty and making himself the center of attention.” “Trump an Disorder.” Financial Times (July 7, 2025).

“The Attorney General told tech companies that they could lawfully violate a statute barring American companies from supporting TikTok based on a sweeping claim that President Trump has the constitutional power to set aside laws, newly disclosed documents show …. Shortly after being sworn in Trump issued an executive order directing the Justice Department to suspend enforcement of the TikTok ban and has since repeatedly extended it. That step has been overshadowed by numerous other moves he has made to push at the boundaries of executive power in the opening months of his second administration …. Essentially, legal experts said, Mr. Trump is claiming a constitutional power to immunize private parties to commit otherwise illegal acts with impunity …. Last year, Congress enacted a law that banned the app in the United States unless its Chinese-owned parent company, ByteDance, sold it to a non-Chinese firm.” “Trump Invalidated TikTok Ban.” New York Times (July 6, 2025).

“The Supreme Court last week sharply curtailed the ability of federal judges to block a presidential action nationwide, even if they find it unconstitutional. That followed its decision last year granting the president broad immunity from prosecution for crimes committed in the course of his core duties …. The Senate several days ago rejected a resolution that would have let Congress decide, under its war powers, if President Donald Trump can strike Iran again. And Congress in recent months has repeatedly declined to assert its constitutional authority over spending or tariffs …. The Constitution does not permit the executive branch to unilaterally commit an act of war against a sovereign nation that hasn’t attacked the United States.” “Congress, High Court Cede Power to the President.’ Washington Post (July 7, 2025).

“Looking through the trade data, is it easy to see how Trump’s tariffs will hurt American businesses and consumers. Imports from Japan last year included $9.9 billion in assorted industrial machines, $7.5 billion in pharmaceutical preparations, and $3.1 billion in medicinal equipment. South Korea sent over $8.5 billion in semiconductors, $7.4 billion in computer accessories, and $3.2 billion in household appliances …. One illusion that’s bursting is that Trump is imposing tariffs in the cause of free trade. He’s imposing tariffs because he likes them as an economic policy. The U.S. average effective tariff rate when Mr. Trump took office was 2.4. As of last month, Trump had cranked that up to 15.6%.” “Tariff Man is Back.” Wall Street Journal (July 8, 2025).

“Yet another aspect is Trump’s extensive use of emergency powers and executive orders. He has made 168 of the latter in just the first few months of this term, bringing his total far above those of his recent predecessors. Trump rules by decree. That is one of the signs of a dictatorship …. Above all, the trade war is not over. The 90-day pause on “liberation day” tariffs is due to come to an end. Deals have not been reached with more than a handful of partners. This economically destructive war on US creditors and, above all, the uncertainty it creates, will continue. The trade war represents an assault on the institutions created by the US after the second world war. It is also damaging US alliances. More broadly, all US commitments are in doubt.”  “Trump’s Assault” Financial Times (July 9, 2025).

“There remain two rather large missing pieces in the international response. One is a positive rather than a passive policy reaction from other governments. The other is that multinational businesses are finding ways round the US tariffs in the short term but otherwise largely holding back from permanently moving their investments to restructure supply chains. A prolonged period of destructive uncertainty about trade policy from the US may change their minds.” “Trump’s Tariff Shambles.” Financial Times (July 11, 2025).

“Instead of viewing tariffs as part of a broader trade policy, President Trump sees them as a valuable weapon he can wield on the world stage …. But while Trump spoke about tariffs off and on before becoming a presidential candidate, he usually described his broader grievance about trade in terms of other countries or companies “ripping off” the United States. It is since Trump became a candidate in 2015 that he has talked about tariffs in earnest, describing them as a tool that he could easily deploy to rebalance the country’s economic footing.” “Trump’s Tariffs – A power Tool, Not Trade Tool.” New York Times (July 11, 2025).

“President Trump’s threat for a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports expanded his use of punitive duties over matters that have nothing to do with trade, breaking with more than a half-century of global economic precedent …. And on Thursday evening, in a new letter to Canada’s leader, Trump said the U.S. will impose 35% tariffs on some Canadian imports starting Aug. 1, citing the fentanyl crisis among other grievances with the country …. Trump’s moves have shaken the global trade order established in the 1940s, when market economies sought to put tariffs and trade among them on a stable footing …. Trump’s approach carries legal risks. In May, the U.S. Court of International Trade struck down many of the president’s tariffs, saying they weren’t justified by the emergency legal authority that he cited. An appeals court will hear the case on July 31, a day before Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to go back into effect on Brazil and scores of other nations.” “Trump Employs Tariffs as Political Cudel.” Wall Street Journal (July 11, 2025). 

“Six months into his new administration, Trump’s assault on global trade has lost any semblance of organization or structure …. The resulting uncertainty is preventing companies and countries from making plans as the rules of global commerce give way to a state of chaos ….Yet even reaching a trade deal may not diminish uncertainty.” “Trump’s Whims & Rules of Global Trade.” New York Times (July 12, 2025).

“The move showed Mr. Trump’s new willingness to use tariffs to settle political scores, regardless of questions of legality, because of their sheer power to cause economic destruction and impose intense political pressure …. And in recent months, Brazil had been a winner in the global tariff war. Its beef exports to the American market doubled and its coffee shipments increased by over 40 percent in the first five months of the year, as threats of tariffs by Trump on other major exporters like China and Vietnam made Brazilian products more attractive.” “Tariffs and Brazil’s Prosecution.” New York Times” New York Times (July 12, 2025).

“The first world war smashed that complacency apart. Protectionism, populist politics and nationalism exploded, causing globalisation and free-market ideas to unravel. Instead, in the interwar years commerce became subordinated to statecraft …. After 1945, there was another pendulum swing. Western governments embraced the ideas advanced by Keynes that the state should use public finances and institutions to manage domestic demand cycles — and allies collaborated around institutions such as the IMF and World Bank to boost global trade and financial links. This rejected the zero-sum vision of commerce and finance that had dominated in the interwar years …. Then, in the 1980s, another shift occurred: leaders such as Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan rejected the domestic agenda of Keynes and instead embraced the free-market ideas …. Now, with Trump, we see a backlash against 1980s neoliberal economics, coupled with a rejection of the spirit of internationalism …. Thus when Joe Biden became president in 2021, he not only retained many of Trump’s tariffs but embraced activist industrial policy ….
The Trump team, however, is taking this to new extremes. They operate with a “zero-sum” mentality and an obsession with power politics that was arguably last seen in the 1930s. And this is not just playing out with tariffs but could soon affect the sphere of finance too …. Geopolitical competition means we are seeing a return to strategic statecraft …. All countries are going to need to get much better at thinking strategically, about . . . their approach to using every lever of the state … Many cling to the hope, after all, that the eruption of geoeconomics in the west will be a temporary phenomenon, likely to end when Trump leaves office. And it is far from clear that the rest of the world will follow the US into greater mercantilism and isolationism. “Global Trade and Geopolitics.” Financial Times (July 12, 2025).

“Trade chaos is forcing America’s allies closer together, and further from the United States …. We’re living in turbulent times, and when economic uncertainty meets geopolitical volatility, partners like us must come closer together …. In hard times, some turn inward, toward isolation and fragmentation.” “Trade Chaos and Allies Moving Closer Together.” New York Times (July 14, 2025).