Obama and Kerry — Foreign Policy and Economic Policy — Focus on More Rules and Free Markets?

Obama Inaugural Address (Jan. 2009)
     President Obama in his Inaugural speech declared that we must engage multilateral institutions and that we all, individuals, corporations and countries have rights and obligations. President Obama’s 2013 Inaugural Speech. He argues that all free markets need rules.
     At his  Senate confirmation hearing for Secretary of State Senator Kerry declared that foreign policy more than ever is economic policy. “Kerry Links Economics to Foreign Policy.” New York Times (Jan. 25, 2013).
      I  wonder if the next four years American foreign policy will see a greater emphasis on developing and enforcing national and global rules to ensure a thriving global marketplace. This focus would be via multilateral institutions and less through unilateral actions and would reflect core American values.
      This would be a good organizing principle.
     After all global politics needs to catch up with global commerce, where international trade and related financial issues are of paramount importance. There seems to be a disconnect between the level politics is conducted and business  is operated. This stands in stark contrast to the hyperconnectivity spurred on by the revolution in wireless, mobile technology and broadband at all levels of society globally.
     Here is one problem. Global trade and commerce is more globalized today than ever before, but trade agreements are being negotiated today more on a bilateral or regional basis (moving away from the Doha Round and multilateral negotiations). What should be done?
      Hopefully, the new Secretary of State will build upon Hillary Clinton’s legacy of commercial diplomacy and President Obama’s earlier pronouncements concerning trade and exports made during his first term. Let’s see what the President states in his forthcoming State of the Union message next month. U.S. foreign policy is directly connected to the economic well-being of the United States.
Posted in Global Trade Relations | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Trade Taxation and Trade Statistics — Both Need an Upgrade.

     Ships (Calif)

     Due to rapid advances in trade spurred on by globalization, the information technology revolution, and by pressures unleashed by the 2008 global financial crisis,  discussions on reforming global trade taxation and traditional trade statistics are now significantly increasing, rapidly.

…..  There is growing pressure worldwide (in the U.S., the EU, and emerging markets) to more effectively and fairly tax multinational corporations and put a stop to aggressively shifting of profits to offshore tax havens via complex inter-company transfers, intellectual property licensing, and cross-licensing. The issues of “worldwide taxation” and “unitary taxation” are now being debated more earnestly.
Unsafe Offshore.” Financial Times (Jan. 14, 2013).
…..There is an ongoing effort by the WTO and the OECD and others (such as the USITC) to update traditional trade statistics. With the advances in technology and business practices there has been a statistical gap in accurately measuring trade flows, a failure to accurately depict them, and  to formulate effective trade policies.  Newer methodologies bring into question hundreds-year-old assumptions about the actual nature of trade and trade theories. Three specific observations are often made by critics:
(i) high value-added services are not  accounted for accurately;
(ii) importance of intermediate goods  are overlooked;
(iii) there is a need to re-define bilateral trade balances in light of revised concepts, newer statistics, and datasets. 
      In light of this newer statistical approach (“value-added”) the U.S. trade deficit would not be reduced but would be redistributed to other countries such as Japan and Korea. For example,  if measured by the value of national content added to exports the U.S. trade deficit with China would be reduced by 25% – 30%.
     This value-added statistical / data approach raises a new set of geopolitical issues and questions.  Most importantly, it highlights important questions concerning the efficacy of existing  foreign policies of the United States especially concerning U.S. – China trade relations; raises questions over the usefulness of trade restrictions generally; further highlights the depth of trade interdependence by focusing on the importance of intermediate goods and services.
               Lamy, “Better Statistics and Better Policy.” WTO News (January 16, 2013).
                ” ‘Made in the World’  Initiative of the WTO.”  WTO website (January 16, 2013).
      To be effective the need to reform taxation of global trade should be done on both a national and international level. Multilateral efforts and bilateral cooperation are essential.
      There is a similar need to revise the statistical  measures of global trade and trade theories. Traditional trade theories often do not accurately take into account developments in globalization, the information technology revolution, or the global supply chain.
     (Revising and harmonizing international accounting, auditing and reporting standards need to go forward. But that is another story.)
      Both of these reform efforts  (trade taxation and trade statistics) are necessary to help ensure better public policies (and corporate strategies) in order to promote, hopefully, greater global trade in this decade. 
                             
Posted in Global Trade Relations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Global Shipping and Local Economic Development — Post-Panamax Ships.

China Trade

     Global shipping and global trade is confronting a historical change when the Panama Canal expansion is completed next year and the new post-Panamax ships will be looking for ports that can accommodate them.

      This potential change in shipping routes and lower costs of shipping goods are leading to heated competition among U.S. ports, especially those on the East Coast (Norfolk, Baltimore and New York). The prize is greater local and state economic development.

      This shipping aspect of global transportation is running into the limitations of local transportation infrastructure in the states and locales housing these ports. Specifically, involving rail and road connections as well as offloading and storage facilities.

     The states that provide the funding for both port expansion and related transportation improvements will win the battle, boost economic development, and create more jobs

Post-Panamax Shipping.” Washington Post (Jan. 14, 2013).
Posted in Global Trade Relations | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Commercial Diplomacy, Foreign Policy and National Interests — Legacy of Hilary Clinton’s State Dept.

Commercial Diplomacy
The commercial diplomacy of Hilary Clinton’s State Dept. may in fact become the greatest legacy of her four years, although  this is not generally recognized yet.  She has made commercial diplomacy and trade promotion integral to American foreign policy, partially at the expense of the U.S. Dept. of Commerce. This seems to be in tune with the times. Global trade is taking center stage in international relations and American foreign policy.
More than her predecessors, Clinton has argued that commercial diplomacy and trade promotion, long the neglected stepchildren of the foreign policy establishment, are central to U.S. strategic interests. The role of the Department of State in promoting trade has varied over the years throughout the 20th century, depending on Presidents and Congressional interests.
It will be interesting to see how John Kerry as the new Secretary of State and President Obama’s trade reorganization proposals impact this legacy. Hopefully, they will reinforce it. It is clear that commercial diplomacy and trade promotion are essential to U.S. national interests. If anything this decade will see even fiercer global competition between countries and their firms for competitive advantage. Globalization and the information technology revolution continue at a heightened pace.
    The name of the game today is “jobs.”
Business Legacy at the State Dept.Bloomberg Business (Jan. 10, 2013).
Posted in Global Trade Relations | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

International Law and Overseas Military Contractors — Corporate Liability for Torture? — About Time.

View of the Capital during President Obama's First Inaugural (Jan. 2009)

View of the Capital during President Obama’s First Inaugural (Jan. 2009)

       Engility Holdings, a military contractor, recently settled a case which alleged torture by its contractors in Iraq in violation of international law.  It was a case brought by former detainees. Previous conflicting federal court rulings, in 2009, had left the general issue of liability of military contractors in a combat zone unclear. 
 Another lawsuit against the contractor CACI International is currently proceeding in the federal court in the Eastern District of Virginia. The Virginia Supreme Court had previously refused to throw that case out. The Obama administration, in 2011, successfully argued before the U.S. Supreme Court that  earlier cases were premature and should not be decided. However, the Obama Justice Dept. subsequently argued in Richmond for the present case to go forward.
 It is in the interest of the United States to follow international law. It is in the interest of the United States for the Obama administration to be more forceful and consistent in upholding the rule of law against torture. It is good legal policy and good foreign policy. It is also what is required by basic American values and global standards.
As President Obama declared in his Inaugural Address in January 2009,   “Our Founding Fathers, faced with perils that we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man ….” In his forthcoming inaugural address, in January 2013, President Obama should make it clear that torture will not be tolerated by the courts of the United States. That liability will be imposed on U.S. corporations no matter where those actions occur.
                    “Contractor’s Torture Settlement  Milestone.” Wall Street Journal (Jan. 10, 2013)
Posted in Global Trade Relations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

New Book — “Global Trade and International Law” — Many Issues and Many Approaches.

Book (Global Trade and International Law 2012) 2
Hein Logo
     My new book GLOBAL TRADE AND INTERNATIONAL LAW has just been published by William S. Hein and Company (January 2013). This utilizes a multidisciplinary approach in assessing a broad range of international legal and global trade issues. These are issues that confront the United States and the global system currently and have confronted them over many years.
     From the Preface by Dr. Peter S. Watson, former Chairman of the U.S. International Trade Commission ………….
      “The book treats a wide range of topics, including broad political issues confronting the global system to those confronting individual states and persons.  The author’s analysis clearly evidences the unique effect of globalization on all levels of government. He clearly understands inter-connected business and public policy problems within an interdisciplinary construct. He utilizes an interest analysis approach to policy formulation — one steeped in optimism and a belief in the strength of the American system, both political and economic, and the opportunities of global integration.”
Stuart Malawer, Global Trade & International Law (Hein and Company and HeinOnline) (2013).
                                                                    (Preface and Introduction and Table of Contents)
                                                                         Global Trade and International Law (ppt) (2013)

Hein online

Posted in Global Trade Relations | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

International Organizations and International Transactions — Can Global Agreements Help Resolve Conflict Over Sovereign Debt Restructurings and Investments by State-Owned Enterprises?

Foreign Money
Two international economic areas have been in the news recently as wrought with conflict and need of a better mechanism to resolve disputes. The first is sovereign debt restructuring as evidenced by Argentina and Greece. The second is the conduct of state-owned enterprises in foreign direct investment as involving Chinese investments recently in Canada and the United States.
What models can be used to further resolve disputes in these two  areas (sovereign debt restructurings and foreign investment by SOE’s)?
I would suggest looking at the proposals made by the IMF concerning sovereign wealth funds several years ago that resulted in the “Santiago Principles” of 2008. I would also suggest looking at the older IMF proposals concerning the “sovereign debt restructuring mechanism” (SDRM) of 2002.
Both sovereign debt restructuring and investments by state-owned enterprises (SOE) are essential to global trade today. The first really entails a sort of voluntary transnational bankruptcy proceeding for a nation.  The second involves assessing foreign corporate ownership and management in terms of national security interests.
To me the best forum to revive these talks would be in the World Trade Organization. The notion of global trade has evolved gigantically since the GATT in the post-war era. Handling issues of global payments and investments is ripe for a serious assessment and global governance.
 The WTO has proven itself in the adoption of a wide range of detailed rules-based agreements and the development of a remarkable dispute resolution system. It is about time that the global trdaing system moves forward to address these newer issues of this decade.
Posted in Global Trade Relations | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Two New Actions — Communications Satellites and GITMO — A More Assertive President?

Stuart Malawer at the White House (Jan. 2013)

Stuart Malawer at the White House (Jan. 2013)

                                                                    
       Two very interesting legal developments seem to have been lost in passage and signing of the legislation avoiding the financial cliff, “The American Tax Payers Relief Act of 2012.”  
    Almost immediately after signing the fiscal cliff measure President Obama signed the National Defense Authorization Act of 2013. Among its numerous provisions it includes two critical ones.
    One, allowing the export of communications satellites as commercial rather than as an export-controlled munitions. Two,  imposing additional restrictions on transferring detainees from Guantanamo and Afghanistan in which President Obama attached a signing statement declaring that he has constitutional authority to override them.
     These two actions indicate a more aggressive post-election policy by the president in promoting two of his goals — global trade and national security.
     In particular, these goals have long been stated — reform of export control legislation and closing Gitmo.
     Underlying these two actions is the general presidential concern for national security issues. The first, to promote greater exports by defense contractors as a means of lessening the impact of defense budget reductions. Second, reasserting the traditional observance of the rule of law in the war against terrorism.
     While some hardliners may object to making communications satellites more readily available in the global marketplace and perhaps reverting back to the federal courts and prisons to deal with detainees from overseas hotspots, it is clear that President Obama is carefully weighting and calibrating national security concerns along with commercial and constitutional interests as we enter the new landscape of this decade. “Communication Satellites and Export Controls.” New York Times (January 4, 2013).
     It is now more than twenty years since the Cold War ended and over ten years since 9/11. Global competitiveness and individual rights under the Constitution are making a comeback, somewhat. Keep in mind the participation of the U.S. in wars of the last decade helped drive U.S. competitiveness into the ground. (The defense budget doubled in real terms from 1998 – 2010 and the U.S. spends more on defense than the next 10 countries combined.)
     To me it is time to adjust our wartime policies to a new global era where low-grade conflicts are likely to go on for years and where there are new players and new realities in the global marketplace. Global competitiveness of U.S. firms is essential to meet the domestic and foreign policy objectives of the United States. Observing the constitutional rights of all individuals under U.S. authority or control is also a good start. 
    Promoting exports and playing by the rules are hallmarks of the Obama presidency.  Hopefully, this is just the beginning of a more assertive presidential administration in upholding U.S. values and U.S. competitiveness in the construct of viable U.S. national security interests. This could be a part of the real legacy of the Obama years.
Posted in Global Trade Relations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

U.S. Treaty Practice — Hostage to Unrealistic Demands?

         Treaty 1
 Treaty practice is an essential aspect of U.S. foreign policy. It is particularly important in trade and finance matters — from the WTO to bilateral investment treaties to international antitrust cooperation agreements. 
     Treaty practice is important also to a host of other areas where the U.S. has not yet acted — such as discrimination against women, disability rights, rights of children, law of the seas (law of the sea tribunal), and cybercrime. Unfortunately, this hesitancy is part of the DNA of the U.S. political system, where many conservatives are reluctant to ratify treaties or implement executive agreements because of unfounded concerns and misplaced and exaggerated emphasis on national sovereignty.
     This restrictive treaty attitude is part and parcel of a general conservative disdain for both customary and conventional international law, espoused recently and consistently by the Supreme Court, conservative law professors and neo-cons, despite the clear provisions of the U.S. Constitution. 
     This is the situation even though the U.S. is the strongest proponent of the rule-of-law approach to foreign policy. Where U.S. administrations have declared consistently that human rights and free-market capitalism are cornerstones of  U.S. foreign policy. It was the United states that was the principal architect of the rules-based system of the GATT and the WTO.
     Most recently, the flagrant violation of international agreements by Argentina over restructuring of its sovereign debt and rights of private hedge funds as creditors, highlights the potential chaos that disdain for international agreements can bring to global trade and investment systems. 
     This practice by Argentina  reflects its long history of rejecting international solutions to debt obligations and expropriations.  It further  highlights the necessity of developing more fully a global legal regime comprising both international agreements of the World Bank / IMF as well as domestic laws concerning foreign sovereign immunity. 
     Other commercial areas ripe for greater development are securities cooperation (as to foreign audits and financial disclosures), bankruptcy where assets are held globally, global taxation of foreign income, and global corruption in government procurement.
      Further national and global legal advances are necessary to address the commercial and financial demands inherent in global transactions today, in this ever-increasing cross-border and digital era of commerce.  The international trading and legal systems needs to adjust the multi-jurisdictional environment to rapidly expanding global transactions, by the largest and smallest of firms.
Posted in Global Trade Relations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Domestic Interest Groups and Foreign Trade Policies — Forthcoming Agricultural and Energy Debates.

Natural Gas Exports
Domestic interest groups are often the major factor in determining the success or failure in adopting newer trade policies.
Battles are shaping up for 2013 over agricultural issues between the United States and the EU — involving contending domestic interest groups in the EU. A similar problem is developing in the United States between importers and producers of agricultural goods (tomatoes) from Mexico. Likewise, there is a battle brewing in the United States over the export of natural gas. The latter is between exporters and domestic manufacturers caused by the success of newer technologies in producing large amounts of  natural gas. The specific issue over rules and regulations governing the U.S. Dept. of Energy  export permits promises to be highly combative. 
…. The U.S. is considering opening extensive U.S. – EU trade negotiations aiming at increased trade especially by removing regulations that hamper agricultural exports (GMO’s) to Europe and others that curb trade and cross-border investment (notably those of government procurement in the U.S.) “U.S. Considers Opening Ambitious Trade Talks with the EU.Wall Street Journal (December 24, 2012).
…. The dispute over the import of tomatoes from Mexico involving the 1996 bilateral agreement, NAFTA, antidumping duties, and a minimum price raises tough issues of conflicting interest groups in the U.S. (Florida growers and U.S. importers). But most importantly it involves the U.S. adherence to the notion that NAFTA creates more trade between the U.S. and Mexico, both ways. “Mexico Finds Unlikely Allies in Trade Fight.New York Times (December 25, 2012).
….There is a domestic trade fight developing between domestic manufactures that oppose the export of U.S. natural gas and the producers and exporters. They argue that exports would help investment and jobs. The supply of natural gas is increasing dramatically because of newer technologies. “Lawmakers Gets a Say on Gas Exports, Wall Street Journal (December 26, 2012).
Posted in Global Trade Relations | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment