Under Trump and Biden, the US trade policy has veered away from its traditional approach, developed since World War II, from multilateralism to focusing primarily on national and unilateral concerns. At the center of this approach have been tensions with China. This includes a renewal of industrial policies, protectionism and, most importantly, reliance on national security, manifested by newer and unexpected geopolitical developments. The discussion of trade policy today has become very toxic, especially during this presidential campaign season, with its renewed focus on tariffs. The trade debate in the US is now entering a new stage with the nomination of Kamala Harris and J.D. Vance. My judgment is that the US drift away from the postwar policies of promoting global trade and investment will continue. Nationalist and protectionist policies will continue as part of a new economic and industrial policy, fused with national security rhetoric, no matter who wins.

Malawer, TARIFFS AND TRADE: RUN-UP TO THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (SSRN Oct. 2024)