One thing is sure — the refund of over $200 billion dollars of illegally collected tariffs is going to be very messy, very political and not easy. This may very well start a whole new legal industry and practice groups within law firms. This will certainly become an issue in the midterms.

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“If a federal court orders the Trump administration to repay billions of dollars collected from its tariffs, the shipping giant FedEx announced this week that it would return the money to customers who bore the brunt of those charges. The new pledge came days after FedEx sued the U.S. government to secure a refund, part of a rapidly widening roster of businesses that have sought to seize on a recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down many of President Trump’s taxes on imports. FedEx, like other carriers, often acts as an importer of record, but it passes along the duties paid to the customers and companies that purchased the goods …. For now, the legal battle over refunds is only just beginning. The stakes for businesses and the U.S. government are high, given that the Trump administration had collected more than $100 billion under its slate of emergency duties.” “Money to be Returned to Customers.” New York Times (2.27.26).

“Trump’s had his fun with tariffs and now it’s payback time. As in: it’s literally time to pay it back. The Supreme Court decision against Trump’s bogusly named emergency duties — as issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — has put his trade policy in disarray. The tariff refund industry is out of the blocks trying to get repayment for businesses of something like $175bn levied over the past year. The exact mechanism for reclaiming tariff payments is mired in legal and administrative uncertainty. It’s possible that companies which paid tariffs that have not yet been “liquidated” — definitively finalized — might be able to get them back quickly. But it is too late for many. It’s pretty clear the administration will struggle to oppose refunds in principle …. It’s pretty clear the administration will struggle to oppose refunds in principle. In a court case brought to the CIT by a group of companies in December, the administration argued against immediately stopping the liquidation of payments but promised to allow refunds later. But Trump can certainly make them difficult and expensive to collect, out of spite if nothing else. Democrats in Congress have already proposed a bill to smooth and expedite the process; no one seems to think it will get enough votes to survive a presidential veto …. The refunds, on top of remaining and forthcoming tariffs, will thus surely become a political issue between now and the midterm elections in November  …. Another potential source of friction is the mismatch between who in effect bore the cost of the tariffs and those who will get the refund. The money is handed back to the “importer of record” which paid them, but if that is a consumer-facing company — or indeed a wholesaler — which passed the cost on to its customers.” “Pay Back Time for Tariffs.” Financial Times (2.27.26).