Donald Trump and the Republicans just achieved a stunning victory in the presidential and congressional elections. Now what? Donald Trump’s first term provides a starting point of what is to come for the next four years. But it is only a starting point.

     Trump will not be hampered by his former advisers who curtailed his excesses. Courts did not restrain his tariff and trade actions then, nor will they do it now. There is no chance that courts will now exercise any real constraint on him whatsoever with his power to appoint new federal judges.

     Most importantly, Trump’s more aggressive tariff and trade policies espoused during this election season were exponentially more aggressive than those during his prior term. This means more confrontation with China and more confrontation with US allies, including the EU, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan and Korea. Much of this confrontation will focus on technology exports to the US and US exports and reexports to China.

     Trump will move quickly to threaten and to impose new tariffs and trade restrictions on China and others. During the presidential campaign, he threatened to impose 20% on all imports and 60% on those from China. Trump will impose more trade and economic sanctions for national security reasons on Iran and for noneconomic reasons such as migration, perhaps on Venezuela, Mexico, and others. He will restrict inward and outward investment and will seek newer tax and antitrust rules favorable to business. Trump will continue to pressure the US and the international legal systems. Most worrisome is what happens if Trump is not able to finish his new term and JD Vance takes over.

     Trump’s foreign policies will harken back to the balance-of-power and national interest–focused realist school of international politics that dominated the 1930s. This approach will now be updated and fused with Trump’s hyper-transactional notion of international relations. This new era of US policy will not end well for the US or the international system. I predict this will be the legacy of Trump 2.0 sooner than later.

     What is the bottom line? “Buckle up.”